Leading Indicator
Intermediate PronunciationEN/ˈliːdɪŋ ˈɪndɪˌkeɪtər/
A leading indicator is an early-moving metric whose direction predicts where a slower outcome metric will land weeks later.
A leading indicator is usually an early behaviour in the user journey: completing activation, reaching the moment of value, or the number of active days in the first week. Its validity has to be demonstrated in the product's own data, by showing that users with that behaviour did in fact stay or purchase later. Two errors recur: importing another product's leading indicator because an article said it worked, and confusing correlation with causation, since a user with strong intent both activates sooner and stays longer, which does not make the intermediate behaviour the cause.